I Kind of, Sort of Might, But Not Really, Believe in Astrology
With little to no scientific evidence backing them, why do so many people still look at their horoscopes?
By Katie Heaney
Earlier
this month I requested the input of an astrologer via Twitter. I had
moved to New York City a week earlier and, in that span of time, had
suffered a series of small but aggravating mishaps, including but not
limited to: carrying my suitcase six flights up the apartment building
next
to mine; subsequently trying, for 20 minutes, to enter the wrong
apartment; purchasing the wrong kitchen cart at IKEA and having to get
in the return aisle immediately afterward; taking an under-prepared cab
driver on an unnecessary loop around my Lower East Side neighborhood in
an attempt to direct him to Brooklyn; breaking two of my new roommate’s
ceramic dishes and one of her Champagne flutes; losing my favorite
bracelet; and riding the subway in the wrong direction for eight stops.
This is likely more or less what anyone (and especially anyone with
below-average grace) moving into a tiny apartment in a big, unfamiliar
city should expect, but it seemed like a lot to go wrong in a week even
still, even for me. I felt notably, cosmically unlucky, and I wanted to
know when exactly I could expect it to stop. So I did the modern
equivalent of visiting a soothsayer, and I tweeted at Miller of
Astrology Zone in hopes she would tweet back to tell me I could expect
the rest of the month to be blessed and error-free.
Although she’s known for responding fairly frequently to astrological
inquiries via Twitter, she didn’t respond to mine. She may well have
been too busy that day, but I suspect she knew my string of screw-ups
was far from over and didn’t have the heart to tell me.
I felt notably, cosmically unlucky, and I wanted to know when exactly I could expect it to stop.
As with most other supernatural/paranormal/pseudoscientific
phenomena, astrology captures my interest for reasons I can’t really
explain. If pressed to state my level of belief in it, the strongest
support I could give it would be to say, “I don’t know … not really?”
But here I am anyway, reading my horoscope every morning before work.
Two of them, actually, from apps I’ve downloaded onto my iPhone—the
aforementioned Astrology Zone, which provides an incredibly detailed and
frequently (if inadvertently) funny monthly outlook, and another called
The Daily Horoscope. I keep my “lucky” days and “most romantic” days in
mind, vaguely, and though I don’t think they have
ever been accurate, I will always give the next month’s a chance.
When a stranger who follows me on Twitter emailed me to ask why so
many “seemingly otherwise smart” people believed in astrology, that’s
probably the kind of cognitive dissonance he was talking about. Despite
near-total scientific dismissal and a penchant for getting even the
haziest predictions wrong much of the time, astrologers are still
compelling to many of us.
Various polls
typically put the figure for true belief among Americans, Canadians,
and the British at roughly 25 percent—a figure that would likely be much
higher if only it incorporated those who kind of,
sort of
believe, as well as those who claim not to believe at all, but still
read their horoscopes sometimes anyway, just to check, as a joke.
THAT SUCH A SUBSTANTIAL number of us could believe in
something with so little to support it has plagued various scientists
and thinkers since the 17th century, when developments in astronomy and
physics undermined most (if not all) of astrology’s legitimacy. It’s
been, at various times, illegal;
fortune telling was outlawed in New York City
in 1967. The law, which is still on the books, is little enforced, but
it speaks to the particular disdain reserved for people who take that
kind of thing seriously. (It’s also, no doubt, meant to protect people
from spending their money on something stupid, but still, the government
only steps in on
some of those stupid things.)
The belief in astrology has also been the subject of academic study. A 1997 article entitled “
Belief in Astrology: A Social-Psychological Analysis”
by researchers Martin Bauer and John Durant used 1988 British survey
data to test a number of hypotheses that might explain why certain
people are more likely to check their star charts than others. Among the
likeliest contenders: first, the level of structure and detail implicit
in astrology appeals to people with “intermediate” levels of scientific
knowledge (because they like the theory and the process, if not the
rigor required to disprove it); second, a belief in astrology reflects
“metaphysical unrest” most present in those with religious backgrounds
who have since moved away from organized religion; and third,
astrological belief is more prevalent among those with an, ah,
“authoritarian character.” I can’t speak for everyone, but on a personal
level: OK, fair enough.
Bauer and Durant found strong support for hypotheses one and
two—belief in astrology coincides with scientific interest and education
up to a point, but then drops off among those inclined to true
scientific rigor, and it does indeed occur more frequently among those,
as the authors put it, “alive to religion” but not currently involved in
a religious community—but, somewhat surprisingly according to previous
literature, none for three. Some believers in astrology might happen to
be authoritarian, but there are a number of other traits that predict
belief more significantly. Frequent horoscope readers are more likely to
be women, for one, and single, and in search of a greater sense of
control (none of which are factors that have ever lent much credibility
to any practice whose enthusiasts are defined by them).
What may be even more notable in Bauer and Durant’s findings, though,
lies in their breakdown of the survey data. Among those who answered
affirmatively to having ever read an astrology report (73 percent of all
respondents), 44 percent responded that they do so often or fairly
often. But only six percent of those who admitted to having ever read an
astrology report said they took what they read seriously or even fairly
seriously. Sixty-seven percent said they took what they read “not very
seriously,” and 22 percent said they didn’t take it seriously at all.
Whether these figures are strictly accurate or at least partly the
result of respondents’ self-consciousness, it’s hard to say. Perhaps,
like me, that 67 percent and 22 percent are mostly speaking of
last month’s horoscope. Next month’s could be totally spot on.
+in+Meghalaya.jpg)
