Migrants Not Safe in Insurgent-Hit Manipur

Imphal, Sep 27 : Laborers and workers who come to Manipur from other Indian states often find themselves at the mercy of insurgents. Recently, two workers from Bihar were killed.

People coming in to Manipur also face the power of the law, and find themselves removed to areas bordering state capital Imphal.

As law enforcement want to avoid further casualties, migrants are moved to areas such as Marwari Dharamsala and Kalibari Puja Devalaya.

Imphal police sub-inspector Basanta Singh said: "We have picked 119 locals here. They are all men and no children and women. The number is likely to increase in the near future."

Bihari Gupta, a migrant, said: "It becomes extremely difficult for us to work over here. We are very tense and we do not know what the future holds for us."

The district administration has taken care of their food, lodging and security. Medical officers are being deployed at the venue so that these people can undertake regular health check ups. Most of the workers were daily wage laborers.

Ranjit Singh, another migrant, said: "I want to tell those people that this is India and we have the right to move freely and this implies to Manipur also. They are killing us because we are poor and they believe that they can terrify us."

People living in Manipur have denounced such acts of violence. They clearly believe that a divide on communal lines will not be in the interest of the people.

Khumukcham Somorjit, a Manipur student, said: "It is not a good thing. Our brothers and sisters are staying and studying outside. I am concerned about them. Instead of creating problems for each other, we should understand each other."

Militants view the migrants as a burden on the state and consider them a hindrance to development in the region.

The banned Revolutionary People's Front had issued a notice to migrants last year to leave Manipur.

APSPA: To repeal or amend. What Should We Do With This Act?

Civilians in Kashmir and the Northeast want the 'draconian' AFSPA repealed, but the army says it can't operate without it. Avalok Langer reports on the dichotomy

Naked rage Manipuri women protest against the army's high-handedness

In the Rann of Kutch, the sighting of a military jonga brings kids on the road, waving, laughing, chasing the vehicle. Others salute the jeep as it passes. The same is likely to happen in Jammu.

But in Kashmir and most parts of the Northeast, young boys and girls take aim with imaginary guns, shooting as a convoy passes.

In the dock In Kashmir, the army can arrest anyone without a warrant

Photo: AP

It is the same army, the same soldiers, but the stark difference in their role creates the duality. Along the western border, the Indian Army stands guard against an external enemy. But in Kashmir and the Northeast, the army, performing a policing role, has fallen from grace.

A 'special' role requires 'special powers' and in 1958, the Armed Forces Special Powers Acts (AFSPA) was enacted to aid antiinsurgency operations. Currently, Jammu & Kashmir, Nagaland and parts of Manipur, Assam, Meghalaya, Tripura and Arunachal Pradesh are under AFSPA - a single-page law that allows shooting to kill on mere suspicion; arrest, search and detention without warrant; and protection from prosecution. These clauses, many feel, violate fundamental rights.

Responding to mounting public pressure, Union Home Minster P Chidambaram recently suggested that AFSPA may be amended. He said he is in talks with Omar Abdullah to rethink J&K's 'disturbed area' status, giving hope to those who have been campaigning against it. But a brigadier serving there says, "If AFSPA is removed from certain areas of the state, they will not only become safe havens for militants, but highways that pass through these areas will become soft targets."

But, why is the army deployed within our own borders when law and order is a state subject? The security mechanism dictates that each state government should have its own security machinery - the police, armed police and in some cases special groups like the Anti-Terrorism Squad to manage law and order. If they are unable to tackle a problem, Central forces such as the CRPF, RAF, ITBP and BSF are deployed under the operational control of the state. It is only when the Governor feels that the state's efforts have failed and armed forces are needed, the region is declared a 'disturbed area' and the army is brought in.

"The army is called in when a section of Indian territory is ungovernable and the situation may lead to secession," says a senior army officer. "Our Constitution does not allow for areas to declare themselves sovereign. It is considered a direct challenge to the State and the army's job is to facilitate the return to normalcy." He claims that insurgencies in areas where AFSPA is operational are not home-grown. "If you look at the area in which AFSPA has been applied, there is direct foreign support in term of training, arms and ideology. This complicates the issue further," he says.

However, Kashmiri lawyer Fasiha Qabri, 31, feels that the creation of 'disturbed areas' is arbitrary and forced upon a region. "The governor or the Central government, not the state government, have the power to declare a state or part of its area as disturbed," she says.

Inshah Malik, 26, a PhD student from Kashmir, says, "AFSPA, which is meant to be an emergency law, violates human rights. The law is vague and has no standards. Lethal force can be exercised if it is deemed necessary. Who decides if it is necessary? Life and death cannot be left subject to an individual's rationale."

An army officer agrees the Act provides impunity from a civil trial, but not from justice. "It may seem that there exists impunity as military personnel are not tried in civilian courts, but justice comes in the form of the Army Act, which comes under the statutes of the Constitution," he says. "The proof is the numerous court martials of personnel serving in CI-Ops (counterinsurgency operations) areas. Other countries that have suffered from insurgencies have created teams like the 'gendarmerie', a military force charged with police duties among civilian population. They have the backing of the Constitution and don't need laws like AFSPA. But we have opted to send the army, so we need such a law."

Armed with Special Powers

Security forces may enjoy legal sanction, but at a certain level AFSPA violates fundamental rights

AFSPA Section 4 (A)
Right to use force (shoot) after giving due warning, even resulting in death

Constitution Article 21
No person shall be deprived of his life

AFSPA Section 4 (C)
Arrest and detain without warrant

Constitution Article 22
Prevention against arbitrary arrest and detention, the accused has to be produced in front of a magistrate within 24 hours

AFSPA Section 6
Protection from legal proceedings for a person acting under law

Constitution Article 14
Equality before the law or equal protection of law

AFSPA has been in effect in these areas
Since 1958
Assam, Manipur

Since 1972
Arunachal Pradesh, Nagaland, Tripura, Mizoram and Meghalaya

Since 1990
Jammu & Kashmir

On the point of the law's 'vagueness', the officer says, "The law is not vague to us. Due warning is specified in the army's rule of patrolling. In an operational situation everything is detailed out - how many times to shout a warning before shooting, who will take on what role in a cordon-and-search situation, etc. The operational rules are set out for us, but there are thousands of us in active duty. Some may not adhere to the rule completely.''

HOWEVER, A grieving mother in Srinagar would not understand this. Parveena Ahanger has spent 21 years searching for her son Javed, 16, who was picked up by security forces on 18 August 1990. He seemed to disappear into thin air. Parveena has found no respite as the inquiry into her son's case awaits the sanction of the home ministry. "There are laws against militants who pick up guns but there are no laws against the army. They picked up my son in the middle of the night in front of the whole family, but now they don't have him. Where is he? Where are the hundreds of other sons, husbands and fathers that have disappeared?'' she asks. "There is no measure of a mother's pain, I have lost everything. They have offered me money, a government job, property, but all I want is my son. This law must go.''

Having taken part in CIOps, an officer gives an example of the grey areas in which they have to operate: "A foreign terrorist, an explosives expert, crossed into India with the help of a local shepherd. Food, women and supplies were brought to his hideout by an overground worker. The worker took him to his target spot, showed the routes and informed about the local security set-up. The worker, shepherd and the women were all aware of the terrorist's presence. Indirectly or directly, they are all involved in an illegal act. After the blast, we got a tip that on the night of the blast a group of 10 men threw a party in a village close to the blast site. We cordoned the house and arrested the men. Nine of them turned out to be innocent, but the 10th spilled the beans on the hideout. We work based on local intelligence in a time-sensitive environment. We need special powers to operate effectively.''

The implication is that operations cannot be held captive to administrative delays. If the local police cannot be trusted, search warrants are useless. Logistically it is not possible to have women officers at every post, argues the officer. "If at a national level a decision has been taken to declare a certain area as 'special', certain fundamental rights may be curtailed,'' he adds. "It is not a normal situation, but these are our operational realities.''

After conducting studies in J&K and Manipur, the Human Rights Watch believes AFSPA has resulted in a situation where it is easier for the security forces to kill a 'criminal' rather than collect evidence against him. "There is a generation of Nagas in Mokokchung who are so terrified of the armed forces that they wet themselves at the sight of a green uniform,'' reveals Akum Longchari, a researcher based in Dimapur, Nagaland.

'There is a generation of Nagas who are so terrified of the army that they wet themselves at the sight of a green uniform,' says Akum

Recounting the horrors of 'Operation Blue Bird' in 1987, the then 13-year-old Joyson Mazamo from Khondei Shimphung in Manipur says, "We were asked to gather in the church where we were kept from July to October. Turn by turn, the men were taken out to be 'questioned', but returned bruised, beaten and tortured. I remember my father returning with a broken arm, my uncle's dead body, charred beyond recognition. The soldiers felt they could do anything and get away with it.''

Interestingly, many feel that the army's attitude, AFSPA and the sense of impunity have played into the hands of the rebels. "It creates a sense of anger and alienation among the common man that aggravates the problem by creating potential recruits for the underground groups,'' explains Longchari. "It is a question of training. (The army) is trained to be aggressive, to deal with the enemy, but can you behave the same way with civilians?''

To this, officers argue that compared to South America, Africa or Chechnya, where tanks and helicopter gunships were used to deal with a challenge to their sovereignty, the Indian Army has kept force application to a minimum. "For this reason we continue to suffer heavy casualties,'' says an officer. "We are fighting with our hands tied behind our backs.''

Many senior officers feel that though a special law is needed, AFSPA can be modified. The question is: to what degree? In the case of Manipur, the prime minister had said that a more humane law will soon replace AFSPA. It is believed the law will relook the 'shoot to kill' and 'search without a warrant' clauses. To which, a senior army officer retorts, "Then remove the army and deal with the problem with police forces.''

After more than 50 years of operating in an environment where local politicians provide patronage to militants and the local police may or may not pass on information to them, army officers often admit that "the problem is political not military''. A senior officer argues, "We are not here by choice. We are here to perform a duty.''

But political indecision has lead to protracted military deployment, worsening the situation. This is one of the reasons why the army is averse to being deployed in the Naxal belt. This may be the crux of the solution. "Political issues need political solutions,'' says Longchari. "Only a strong India can negotiate and find peaceful solutions for many of its problems.''

Avalok Langer is a Correspondent with Tehelka. avalok@tehelka.com

Vehicle Torched by Supporters of Blockade in Manipur

Imphal, Sep 26 : A mini truck was set ablaze and more than 40 other vehicles were damaged by supporters of the economic blockade at Bongyang area in Manipur's Chandel district, official reports said today.

Reports said the supporters of the blockade stopped the vehicles at interior Bongyang area on NH-39 yesterday and set fire to a mini-truck and damaged 40 others.

The vehicles loaded with essential items were coming from border town of Moreh, about 120 km southeast of here.

Sadar Hills District Demand Committee (SHDDC) launched economic blockade on the portions of national highway 39 and 53 in Manipur since August 1 demanding conversion of Kuki-majority Sadar Hills area in Naga-majority Senapati district as a full-fledged district.

Whereas, United Naga Council opposing SHDDC demand also launched the economic blockade on the same national highways from August 21.

So far over 20 vehicles have been set ablaze by supporters of the economic blockades, official sources said, adding that four persons including a driver were killed till today in the economic blockade-related incidents.

Manipur cabinet has met more than four times in the past one-and-half-months to discuss the issue of new district but no decision could be taken, sources said.

Many civil organisations have appealed to both SHDDC and UNC to call off the blockades on the national highways and adopt another democratic agitation to press their demands, reports said adding that both the organisations have not so far called off the blockades.

Reports from the markets said prices of essential items have gone up steeply due to the scarcity of the items because of the economic blockades.

New DND Guidelines: Things To Know

From 27 September, 850 million phone subscribers across the country may finally get some relief from unsolicited commercial calls and messages.

The last attempt, in 2007, to curb telemarketers by setting up a Do Not Call (DNC) Registry failed miserably. But the National Consumer Preference Registry, the latest effort that has missed many launch deadlines, raises hope for putting an end to pesky calls and messages.

TRAI has strengthened the DNC guidelines and revamped registration norms for the telemarketers. Here's how the new set of guidelines will work.

New number for telemarketers

Telemarketers to be assigned a distinct series beginning with 140.

Penalty imposed

The minimum penalty for violations has been set at Rs 25,000 against Rs 500 at present. As the penalties will progressively increase, the sixth violation will attract Rs 2.5 lakh fine.

Blacklisting

Telemarketers can also be blacklisted for two years after the sixth violation. Service providers will be barred from providing any telecom resource to blacklisted telemarketers.

Restriction on number of SMSes

The number of text messages or SMSes that can be sent will be restricted to 100 a day for prepaid and 3,000 a month for post-paid telephone numbers.

Barred timings

No calls and messages are permitted between 9 pm and 9 am.

How to register for DND

Dial or send an SMS to 1909 to register with NCPR or register at www.nccptrai.gov.in
Choose categories of commercial messages/ calls to be blocked. Those already registered with National Do Not Call Registry (NDNC), need not re-register.

Blocked categories

* Banking & financial products
* Communication & entertainment
* Tourism or leisure
* Consumer goods
* Automobiles
* Real estate
* Education
* Health

Northeast India’s Burden Of History

Carte Blanche - Arup Dutta

‘....the creation of East Pakistan during Partition has indubitably been the heaviest of these burdens’

Northeast India is burdened by the weight of recent history which those unaware of or untouched by it can hardly appreciate — precisely why only the politically naïve had expected Manmohan Singh’s visit to Bangladesh to bring about some positive gains for this region.

Ushering in an era of isolation for the Northeast, and consequent alienation from the rest of the nation, the creation of East Pakistan (later reincarnated as Bangladesh) during Partition has indubitably been the heaviest of these burdens.

The political barriers which operate today have imparted an element of insularity to the Northeast’s geographical location.

With Bangladesh being driven like a wedge between it and the Indian mainland, and the Northeast tenuously strung to the latter by a narrow “chicken’s neck”, this insularity is pronounced when we look at the current map of South Asia. But the isolating shift had not occurred even till India’s Independence from British rule.

On the contrary, the ethnologic, social and cultural evolution of the region bears clear testimony to the centricity of its geo-anthropological location in the past, vis-à-vis China, Burma (Myanmar), South-east Asian nations, Tibet, Bhutan and mainland India.

The seemingly impassable mountain ranges hemming it in from three sides had been porous since time immemorial.

The hills on the north, east and south had routes linking the Northeast to Myanmar, Indo-China, China, Tibet and Himalayan kingdoms. China, Myanmar and Indo-China could also be reached via Cachar and Manipur in the southeast and Patkai ranges from the east. Tibet was approachable through passes from the eastern extreme of the Northeast, while passes called Dooars existed to Bhutan and Nepal. The Ganges-Brahmaputra link as well as land-routes across the wide Bengal plains could be used to enter the Northeast from the western flank.

Given this centricity, it is no wonder that a unique, amorphous conglomeration of communities evolved in the Northeast. On one side lay western China, which anthropologists call the great repository of Mongoloid races, from where people fanned out in prehistoric eras to settle on the Himalayan plateaus and slopes as also Southeast Asia.

On the other side lay the Indian sub-continent, with its own pattern of ethnic conflict and assimilation. The Northeast, being strategically placed, witnessed waves of migration from all directions through existing inlets, taking in people and cultural traits. Broadly speaking, the Caucasic elements entered from the west and Mongoloid from the east, north and to some extent from the south. These complemented the Austric and Dravidian elements already present, brewing up a cultural identity and ethos not to be encountered elsewhere in the sub-continent.

As Suniti Kumar Chatterjee writes in his The Place of Assam in the History and Civilisation of India (1970): “Assam (viz. undivided Assam) has thus to meet all tribal movements from the east, involving the advent into India of Tibeto-Chinese speaking Mongoloids; and it was in Assam primarily that this great element in the formation of the Indian people became largely Indianised.…This can be looked as Assam’s great contribution to the synthesis of cultures and fusion of races that took place in India ….The Indian man as the result of the fusion of the Aryan and Dravidian, Mongoloid and Austric came into being at the end of the Vedic period (by 1,000 BC).”

Accompanying the ethnological evolution was cultural and religious transference from the age-old civilisations of China and India, resulting in an involute cultural scenario. The centricity of the region contributed to the richness of the cultural mosaic which also incorporated elements from Myanmar, Indo-China and Tibet. In the kingdom of Bhaskarvarman, for example, Hiuen Tsang in 638 AD had heard a particular song and recognised it to be a Tibeto-Burman version of a Chinese song celebrating the triumph in 619AD of a Chinese prince over some rebels, a telling illustration of the cultural closeness of the two regions.

If the Northeast in the past had been economically self-sufficient and commercially vibrant, it was primarily due to the openness of communication between neighbouring areas. Salt, for instance, was brought on horses by Bhutanese or Tibetans, or transported upon boats from Bengal over the Brahmaputra. The westward Brahmaputra-Ganges route to the Indian heartland was a natural outlet, while the sea was accessible to the south through the Meghna. John M. Cosh in 1837 speaks of three traditional land routes used by traders, all passing through present Bangladesh. William Robinson in 1841 wrote that “Tibet is open to travellers on foot from the extreme east of Assam — from Sadiya to Bhaloo, first town met within Tibet, takes 16 days”.

The most romantic of all these outlets from the valley, an extension of the Ganges-Brahmaputra link, was the ancient “silk-route” to China.

“There is an open road from Upper Assam into Burma, and thence into China, by which a considerable trade in Chinese and Burmese manufactures was at one time carried on,” wrote Robinson.

The line of trade, after leaving Sadiya, passes by Bisa, across the Patkoye range of mountains, and through the valley of Hukung to the town of Munkung, situated on a navigable branch of the Irawatti, called Namyang.

Merchants proceeding from Munkung to Ava at once descend via the Irawatti to the capital, while those to China ascend the Irawatti for many miles to a place called Katemow, where they disembark their goods, and thence convey them on mules over a range of mountainous country into the Chinese province of Yunan.

In fact, a section of archaeologists opine that trade between Rome and China over this silk-route had been carried on since as far back as the 1AD. Today, primarily because of political changes, most outlets from the Northeast to its neighbours have been closed. A region which had been a meeting-ground for ancient cultures and strategically positioned for economic prosperity and cultural development has been reduced to an eastern outpost boxed in from all sides, at the periphery of India.

The unkindest cut of all has been the creation of East Pakistan/Bangladesh, which has severed a vast swath of communication routes with mainland India, thereby exacerbating the feeling of being cut off from the mainstream and consequent alienation.

There had been two major railway lines, the Assam Bengal Railways and the Eastern Bengal Railways, connecting the Northeast to the rest of India as well as Chittagong and Calcutta ports. The Partition overnight amputated these as well as the numerous land routes so that, ironically, travellers from say Tripura, Mizoram or Cachar, who had earlier been able to travel directly across Bengal to other parts of India, have now to take a far longer and circuitous route.

The river passage had remained clear till 1965, when the war with Pakistan saw the closure of this historic outlet. The commercial setback this caused can be gauged from the fact that till the Indo-Pakistan war almost 90 per cent of Assam tea had been transported through the river route. There has been no tangible effort to revive this outlet or introduce speedier water transport system in keeping with modern times.

It is astonishing how a few strokes made by erstwhile colonialist masters can alter the destiny of an entire region. Bangladesh, indeed, has been the heaviest historical burden that the Northeast carries.

Yet, far from undertaking negotiations so as to try and lighten this burden, our politicians, diplomats and bureaucrats are busy carrying baskets of goodies to curry favour with that country. Of course, that Manmohan Singh and his entourage kept absolutely mum on the issue of illegal influx is another story altogether!

Aizawl Moves Fast To Become Solar City

Aizawl, Sep 25 : The state government has vigorously pursued the Central government s mission to make Aizawl a solar city, urban development and poverty alleviation minister Zodintluanga said today.

Speaking at a workshop on renewable energy technology at the Tourist Lodge, Chaltlang here, Mr Zodintluanga said a master plan, prepared by the International Council for Local Environmental Initiatives (ICLEI), was submitted to the Ministry of New and Renewable Energy (MNRE) in March this year.

Stakeholder committee and solar city cell have been formed, he added.

To educate public on the use of solar energy, solar water heating system, solar home lighting system, solar lantern and LED street light have been installed at the Aizawl Municipal Council office, the minister said.

Informing that solar energy would be first introduced in cemeteries, community halls, local council houses, street lights and Aizawl New Market building, the minister said data were being collected to prepare DPRs.

Once this mission is accomplished, we would be able to use energy at cheap rates. It is important that we take concerted efforts this project a success, he said. The daylong workshop, co-organised by UDPA and ITP Senergy Advisory Services Private Limited, aimed at utilization of renewable energy in health and education sectors.

Zoram Energy Development Agency (ZEDA) director David Zahmuaka and head of renewable energy solutions under the ITP Senergy Dwipen Boruah, gave power-point presentation on the technology of renewable energy during the workshop attended by officials of Aizawl Municipal Council, school education and higher & technical education departments, hospitals and private and government schools.

The ministry has selected 60 Indian cities to be made renewable energy cities or solar cities under the 11th Five Year Plan, including two model cities, with an objective to support urban local bodies to prepare a road map.

ICLEI, South Asia, wits its vast experience in city planning, was roped in to prepare the master plan. The ministry had provided financial support up to Rs 50 lakh for each solar city to the respective state governments for preparation of a master plan, setting-up institutional arrangements for the implementation of the master plan, awareness generation and capacity building activities.

Further, for two model solar cities, financial support of 50 per cent upto a maximum of Rs 9.50 crore will be available towards the cost of installation of renewable energy systems, sources added.

The state capital of Mizoram, with this project, plans to cover up to 10 per cent of its energy demand via renewable sources and also implement other energy efficiency measures with the programme, official sources said here today.

Living On The Edge, Dangerously

By Jaideep Mazumdar & Deep Gazmer



"And then the path vanished. Had it not been for the bright moonlight, we might have walked straight into a void. The rain had caused a landslide, and where there had been a narrow path there was now only a precipice of loose, slippery shale." -'The Glacier' by Ruskin Bond

Living on the edge is not just a figure of speech for people in the hills. Writer or tiller, they all live close to nature's bounty - and its boundless fury. And nowhere is the danger starker than in the Indian Himalayas, among the world's most earthquakeprone zones. Major parts, including Kashmir and the Northeast, fall in Zone V - the most seismically active. But the towns standing on these heaving hills seem oblivious of the risks as they build with a vengeance.

Quake-hit Gangtok is a clutter of concrete buildings, all of them hanging on precariously to steep mountain slopes. Most of them have developed ominous cracks after the September 18 quake. "Some of these buildings have to be evacuated immediately, and also the ones that are below them down the hill," an engineer inspecting the damage says.
Experts say that none of the buildings in the Sikkimese capital, which draws lakhs of tourists every year, are earthquake-resistant. Pankaj Adhikari, an architect in Gangtok, says the city doesn't have a proper building code, "and even the archaic one that does exist is flouted at will". Buildings with more floors than five-and-half storeys - the maximum allowed - are common and no action has ever been taken against such constructions, he fumes.

"The simple ABC of building codes for earthquake-prone regions is that all structures should resist minor to moderate earthquakes (3 to 5.9 on the Richter scale) undamaged; resist moderate to major (6 to 7.9) earthquakes without significant structural damage and survive severe earthquakes (8 or more) without collapse," Adhikari says. "But more than 90% buildings in Gangtok have suffered structural damage in Sunday's earthquake which was in the 'strong' category."

In the last 100 years, the Northeast has experienced hundreds of temblors of varying intensity - 210 between 5 and 5.9; 128 between 6 and 6.9; 15 between 7 and 7.9, and four of 8 or above magnitude. But, learning no lessons from the past, almost all the state capitals have turned into concrete jungles. Shillong is no exception. "People can no longer afford the luxury of spacious Assam-type buildings on sprawling compounds, and are forced to go for concrete constructions due to constraint of space," says an official in the Meghalaya capital's department of urban affairs. The state also has several unorganized coal mining projects. A major quake could spell disaster for these 'rat hole' mines and their workers.

Large dams add to the risk. As many as 168 dams are planned in Arunachal Pradesh alone to tap the state's 50,000MW hydro-power potential. Construction work is already on for the 2000MW Lower Subansiri Project, the country's biggest hydro-power dam. Several organizations have opposed such projects out of concern for Assam which is located downstream. An expert committee, comprising faculty from IIT Guwahati, Gauhati University and Dibrugarh University, in its report submitted to the Assam government in 2010 raised the issue of threat from the Lower Subansiri Project due to its location in the seismic zone.

Sunday's earthquake also shook the Darjeeling Hills. But worse is yet to come, warn experts. The fragile nature of the hills and their vulnerability to landslides compounds these fears. Kalimpongbased Praful Rao, founder-member of Save the Hills (STH), an NGO working for raising awareness about landslides, says unplanned urban development is causing more landslides. "Deforestation and man-made drains in the mountains have further weakened the hills," he says.

Unchecked construction is another big concern. "Nowadays, more than five-storey buildings are being constructed here. There are over 400-500 such structures in the town area itself," says Bharat Prakash Rai, secretary of Fosep (Federation of Society for Environment Protection). He says the permissible height of 11.5m is being flouted. "Huge constructions are coming up at more than 60-degree slopes (twice the recommended limit)." Darjeeling Municipality engineer Vijay Tamang says they are now trying to control that.

The Dalai Lama's home, too, has seen unprecedented growth with a slew of hotels, monasteries and educational institutes coming up in the past decade. Dharamshala is the headquarters of Himachal's Kangra district which witnessed last century's biggest earthquake in 1905. The epicentre of that temblor, which killed 20,000 people, was near Mcleodganj, the seat of the Tibetan government in exile. "Dharamshala lies in the Schuppen Zone in which closely spaced, mutually thrusted belts of various rocks lie delicately stuck over each other, making it one of the most dangerous areas. The soil and rocks in towns like Dharamshala are burdened under heavy construction and can give in at the slightest tremor," says Chandigarh-based geology professor A D Ahluwalia.

And what of Shimla, capital of Himachal? Almost the entire town, in Seismic Zone IV, could come crumbling down in the event of a major quake. The state's town and country planning minister, Mohinder Singh, recently told the Assembly that 98% of the buildings in Shimla were not safe. Less than 2% were earthquake-resistant, he said. Shimla is also a landslide-prone area and heavy construction pressure has started sinking the historic Ridge. "Should a disaster strike Shimla, it is bound to be of catastrophic proportions," says environmentalist Billy Malhans.

As for J&K, a legislation is in the works to make quake-resistant private buildings mandatory. This comes six years after parts of the state were flattened by a devastating earthquake. The state government had earlier issued guidelines that no government building shall be constructed unless it complies with Bureau of Indian Standards codes on quake resistance. Disaster management cell coordinator Aamir Ali says building bylaws have been amended "clause by clause" in consultation with Prime Minister Manmohan Singh's national seismic advisor Anand S Arya. The Bill is now awaiting an Assembly nod.

"We have trained masons, engineers, architects and structural engineers in earthquake risk management," says Ali. "We have also roped in imams to convey the message. That has helped a lot."

(With reports from Naresh Mitra, Guwahati; Manosh Das, Shillong; S Gopal Puri, Chandigarh; Ravinder Makhaik, Shimla, and Sameer Arshad, Delhi)

Will China Eye Arunachal Pradesh’s Shale Oil?

By SA Aiyar

From 1990 onward, Chudamani Ratnam, former chief of Oil India Ltd, repeatedly claimed that India had a treasure trove of shale oil in Arunachal Pradesh and other parts of the north-east. He said these deposits could produce 140 million tonnes per year for 100 years, making India a net oil exporter. However, the deposits looked uneconomic, so he was not taken seriously. Analysts laughed when he suggested that China might one day invade Arunachal Pradesh to grab the oil.

Suddenly, that scenario no longer looks completely crazy. New technology in the US has hugely reduced the cost of extracting shale oil. The world over, oil companies are looking afresh at shale oil. China is surely doing the same.

In favorable rock strata (like limestone and sandstone), gas and oil flow out under their own pressure. But shale is “tight” and yields poor flows of oil and gas. Hence, shale oil and gas have historically been viewed as worthless.

That changed a decade ago with shale gas “fracking”—a new technology of horizontal drilling followed by injection of high pressure water, sand and chemicals. This “fracks” open the shale and allows gas to flow. Shale gas production is now booming in the US, and will meet a quarter of US needs by 2020. Top Indian oil companies, from Reliance to BPCL, have acquired stakes abroad in shale gas companies to gain fracking expertise, to be used later in India.

The petroleum ministry is working on a new policy to encourage shale gas exploration. 
Shale fracking can increase not only gas flow but oil flow too, though at a slower rate. Shale oil can be profitable at $60/barrel. The Bakken shale in North Dakota has increased oil production tenfold to 400,000 barrels/day, and this could double again in a few years. The New York Times says that by 2020, US shale oil production may hit 2 million barrels/day, as much as India’s entire consumption was in 2000.

US oil companies first went for shale oil after the 1973-74 oil shock. The 1970s technology entailed digging and crushing enormous quantities of shale, and baking this to extract oil. The environmental consequences were terrible. Huge quantities of water were needed to cool and stabilize the spent shale, which piled up in giant man-made mountains that leaked toxic wastes. The technology also proved uneconomic, and was abandoned.

Arunachal Pradesh has an additional environmental issue-- its shale lies in prime forest. So, nobody will use the 1970s technology in the state. However, fracking avoids problems of the old technology. It entails drilling underground, and so will not disturb forests or create mountains of spent shale. There is water aplenty in the north east.

However, environmentalists in many countries have opposed gas fracking, and will also oppose oil fracking. They fear drinking water could be contaminated by toxic fracking chemicals, and that gas might leak into domestic water supplies. France has banned fracking as a precautionary measure. Some regions in the US and other countries have also imposed curbs and bans. New York state virtually halted fracking and has now proposed new safeguards for fresh drilling. These include additional steel casings to avoid gas leakages, and prohibition of drilling near aquifers, wells or large cities. That still leaves 80% of the giant Marcellus shale deposit in the state available for drilling.

India needs similar safeguards for shale oil and gas. Arunachal’s shale oil lies in virtually unpopulated forests, so fears of drinking water contamination will be minimal. Non-toxic fracking chemicals are being developed and should be adopted everywhere.

Not all oil shale is frackable, only highly saturated shale. Oil India came across shale deposits in Arunachal Pradesh and Nagaland decades ago, and should act immediately to delineate the frackable proportion. If this turns out to be large—and the portents are good—Oil India should rapidly acquire and use fracking technology. Meanwhile, New Delhi should tweak its new policy on shale gas—including environmental safeguards-- to cover shale oil too.
China claims Arunachal Pradesh on historical grounds. But shale oil can give its claim a new dimension. This has already happened in the South China Sea, which China claims for historical reasons, but also because it has huge oil potential.

Within a decade, China may overtake the US as the world’s biggest oil importer. It would love to get Arunchal’s oil, ideally located to supply Tibet and Yunan. China will surely protest diplomatically against Indian exploitation of shale oil in Arunachal Pradesh, just as it has opposed hydel projects there. India must reject such protests firmly and go full speed ahead.